The Silent Work of NDPE: Real Proof That Mitigation Can Come from the Market

The Silent Work of NDPE: Real Proof That Mitigation Can Come from the Market

Earthqualizer’s Behind the Scenes

Since its inception, Earthqualizer Foundation and Inovasi Digital (EQ/ID) has played a critical behind-the-scenes role in supporting the NDPE ecosystem. Through satellite-based monitoring systems, a transparent public grievance mechanism, and real-time tracking of major palm oil companies, EQ/ID helps ensure supply chains are cleared of deforestation and peatland conversion. Operating quietly, this work has become one of the reasons for the decline in palm oil-driven deforestation in recent years.

Data Speaks: Deforestation Drops, Emissions Follow

Picture 1: Graph of Global Oil Palm-Related Deforestation and Peat Non-Compliance, 2016–May 2025 (ha) by Inovasi Digital

According to Chain Reaction Research and Global Forest Watch data, deforestation linked to palm oil expansion has dropped by over 80% since 2015. In 2021, only around 19,000 hectares of forests were cleared by large palm oil groups committed to NDPE, compared to over 100,000 hectares (ha) annually in the pre-NDPE years.

These trends are also reflected in Indonesia’s official data:

• Net national deforestation declined from 630,000 ha (2015–2016) to just 104,000 ha (2021–2022).
• The Forestry and Land Use (FOLU) sector contributed 66.6% of total national emissions reductions in 2022, equivalent to 285 million tons of CO₂e.

In short, NDPE works. It reduces emissions. It protects forests.

The Next Challenge: 20% of Palm Oil Remains Untraceable

Despite these achievements, significant challenges remain. Approximately 20% of Indonesia’s palm oil supply remains untraceable, increasing the risk that it may originate from forested areas, peatlands, or undocumented customary lands.

The analysis conducted by Inovasi Digital shows that out of 471,238 ha of deforestation and 115,587 ha of peatland degradation linked to global oil palm development from 2016 to 2024, approximately 125,092 ha are associated with untraceable oil palm, which we refer to as orphan cases (Read our complete report here).

These products still find their way into the market, especially the domestic one, without any oversight. This loophole threatens the credibility of Indonesia’s palm oil sector and could undermine its climate targets.

Much of this risk stems from palm oil concessions and areas classified as APL (Other Land Use Areas), which are still legally convertible to plantations despite containing forest and peatland.

According to the Indonesia FOLU Net Sink 2030 Operational Plan, total forested APL areas across all provinces amount to 6.01 million ha, including:

• Forests in APL located outside concession boundaries (non-HGU), and
• Forests within HGU areas (plantation business permits already issued).

Many of these areas also overlap with peat ecosystems, which release extremely high carbon emissions when drained or cleared.

The Emission Threat from APL Conversion:

Assuming a business-as-usual carbon emission estimate of 400–500 tons of CO₂e per hectare, the conversion of 6.01 million ha of forest and peatland could result in:

±2.7 billion tons of CO₂e

This is equivalent to more than twice Indonesia’s current annual GHG emissions—a massive threat to the country’s climate mitigation pathway.

Without clear regulation, a firm prohibition on converting forested APL, and the full integration of NDPE across these “gray areas,” Indonesia’s climate architecture risks collapsing from within.

Unlocking NDPE’s Full Potential for Climate Action

NDPE holds tremendous potential as a mitigation tool. To scale its impact, the following steps are essential:

1. Mandate traceability down to smallholders and village-level sourcing.
2. Provide technical and financial support to enable smallholders to meet NDPE standards.
3. Activate district-level monitoring forums to mediate supply chain issues and ensure compliance.
4. Push domestic markets and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to adopt NDPE, not just export markets.

NDPE as a Cornerstone of Indonesia’s Climate Hope

Indonesia has set ambitious climate goals, aiming to achieve a FOLU Net Sink by 2030, a 43.2% emissions reduction target with international support, and Net Zero by 2060.
Yet these targets won’t be achieved through formal policy alone. A collaborative approach is needed, where government, markets, and civil society work together.

If the climate crisis is a shared responsibility, then NDPE is evidence that some of us have already begun to take action. Now is the time for everyone else to follow.